Reference · updated 2026-08-10
Cohort's argument only holds if its numbers are defensible. The whole economic model is built on published mobile games industry figures, and every one of them is listed here with its source. Figures the model still uses but that we have not yet traced to a primary source are withheld from this page and from public builds until they are.
Baseline retention in the model is set to the puzzle-genre medians. Lever settings then push the curve up or down from here.
| Figure | Value | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 retention | 31.9% | Puzzle genre. All-genre median sits nearer 27%. | Segwise 2026 |
| Day 7 retention | 12.2% | Puzzle genre. All-genre band is 8 to 14%. | Segwise 2026 |
| Day 30 retention | 5.4% | Puzzle genre. All-genre band is 3 to 7%. | Segwise 2026 |
The default ending of a run is failure, and it is drawn straight from the base rate. Most apps do not make real money, and the ones that do concentrate it hard.
| Figure | Value | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| New apps reaching $10k MRR within 2 years | 4.6% | The base rate the run is calibrated to. | RevenueCat 2026 |
| Day 35 conversion, hard paywall | 10.7% | Anchors the paywall-tightness lever. | RevenueCat 2026 |
| Day 35 conversion, freemium | 2.1% | The other end of the same lever. | RevenueCat 2026 |
| Median year-over-year MRR growth | 5.3% | Top decile grew 306%. The median is the story. | RevenueCat 2026 |
RevenueCat, State of Subscription Apps 2026, drawn from 115,000 apps and $16B in tracked revenue.
| Figure | Value | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viable LTV to CAC ratio | 3.0 | Below this, scaling paid acquisition destroys value per install. A standard growth heuristic, widely cited across SaaS and mobile, used as the model's viability threshold. | Modelling threshold |
| Legendary pull-rate band | 0.6% to 1.5% | The range major gacha titles publish under probability-disclosure rules. Bounds the legendary-pull lever. | Published gacha odds disclosures |
The model uses a further set of figures (IAP conversion rate, the top-1% revenue concentration, rewarded and interstitial eCPMs, and blended cost per install) that we believe are close to industry standard but have not yet traced to a primary, checkable source. They are deliberately not listed above, and the game flags them internally so the gap stays visible rather than forgotten. When each is sourced, it will appear here with its citation.
If you have a primary source for any of these, The Network form is the fastest way to send it.